Daily Forex Commentary

28 December 2017 - US Dollar falls to a 3-month low. AUD and NZD at best levels in over 2 months. GBP slips on all its major crosses.

By Nick Parsons

Thursday 28 December

British Pound (GBP)

The GBP had a day of two halves on Wednesday in the Northern Hemisphere. In London trading, the pound moved sharply higher once stops were hit around last Friday’s intra-day high of 1.3390. GBP/USD reached a best level of 1.3425 before giving back almost all the gains in the North American time zone. Overnight, as the US Dollar has hit a fresh 3-month low, GBP/USD is back up at 1.3447, though the pound is lower on all its major cross rates; making it the second-weakest currency of all. For many people in financial markets, the best part of the festive break between Christmas and New Year is the absence of Brexit negotiations. The seemingly interminable rows between Government and Opposition parties have been temporarily suspended, whilst talks between the EU and European Union don’t restart for several weeks. That said, the Chancellor is being pressed to publish documents after he told the Treasury select committee earlier this month that the government had “modelled and analysed a wide range of potential alternative structures between the European Union and the United Kingdom”. It is to be hoped any documents are more informative than the so-called sectoral studies which the Minister for Exiting the European Union published just before Christmas. As economic analysis, they were utterly useless. For comedy value, they were wonderful. On fishing, for example, we learned that, “As an island nation, the UK has been dependent on the sea for its trade and defence throughout history, and strong traditions of seafaring can be traced back hundreds of years… There is a concentration of activity in coastal towns.” We’ll leave our readers to reflect upon this insight, and to wonder where else, other than coastal towns, a fishing industry might be based… The pound opens in Europe this morning at USD1.3447 with GBP/EUR at 1.1265 and GBP/AUD at 1.7230.

US Dollar (USD)

USD/GBP expected range: 1.3390 – 1.3490

The US Dollar’s slide continues. Last week its index against a basket of major currencies fell from 93.50 to 92.85 and it has now fallen every day since Christmas. After a very brief opening rally on Tuesday, the index fell to a 3-week low of 92.73. Yesterday in Europe it traded down to 92.51; the lowest level since December 1st and overnight in Asia it hit 92.42; the weakest since September 25th. The move lower comes as US yields have slipped back across all points on the maturity spectrum. 2-year notes now yield 1.90%, 10-year Treasuries are down from 2.47% to 2.41% and the 30-year long bond is down 6bp at 2.75%. Despite these declines, the spread between 2-year US and German rates of just over 250bp is the widest in almost 20 years. The performance of the US equity market over the last ten days might explain some of the caution on the US Dollar even if it isn’t yet flashing a red warning light for the currency. If we look at the S+P 500 index futures contract, this hit an intra-day high of 2694 back on Tuesday December 19th. The peaks of last Wednesday and Thursday failed to take the index back to this level and it closed the week 10 points off the high at 2684. Yesterday’s low point matched last Thursday’s 2678 low before an overnight rally to 2482. If we see a break and a close below 2678, then the technical picture turns much more negative in the short-run and will raise fears of a return to the post-FOMC low around 2650. There were more US economic statistics released yesterday. The headline Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed expectations of 128.0; falling instead to 122.1 from 129.5. The 'miss was driven by a huge drop in "expectations" which tumbled from 113.3 to 99.1; the lowest since November 2016. Indeed, the spread between the present situation (156.6) and expectations (99.1) is now just over 57 points; the widest since the days of the dotcom boom turned to bust. The US Dollar index opens in Europe this morning at 92.45. Later today, we’ll have the advance goods trade balance, weekly jobless claims and the Chicago NAPM index.

European Euro (EUR)

GBP/EUR expected range: 1.1245 – 1.1290

The EUR finished higher against a generally weak US Dollar on Wednesday but did no better than hold its own against the GBP whilst falling against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. It had remained on a USD1.18 big figure ever since 6am local time on Tuesday December 19th until mid-afternoon yesterday when it rose to a best level of 1.1907 before again settling back to the high USD1.18’s. The weakness of the US Dollar overnight has pushed EUR/USD back up to 1.1931; its highest level this month and the strongest since November 27th. The Single European Currency still seems a favourite pick for 2018 for a wide range of FX strategists and analysts but one of the main questions in the near-term is the extent to which this is already reflected in investor positioning. A very interesting Bloomberg analysis of the EUR/USD options market yesterday reflected a 75% probability that the pair will reach 1.2170 by end-2018, a 67% probability of 1.2290 and a 50% probability of 1.2560. An opinion poll published in Die Welt newspaper on Wednesday showed that if Angela Merkel becomes German chancellor again, 47% of respondents wanted Merkel to step aside before 2021, when her fourth term would end - up from 36% in a poll taken at the beginning of October. By contrast, only 36% want her to serve a full four years, compared to 44% three months ago. Meantime, a poll in Bild magazine put Merkel’s conservatives up 2 points at 33% and the SPD down 0.5% at 20.5%. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which entered parliament for the first time in September, was down 1 point at 13%. The euro opens in Europe this morning at USD1.1930, with GBP/EUR down 10 pips at 1.1265.

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