Daily Forex Commentary
04 January 2018 - FOMC Minutes help support USD. Solid China PMI push AUD and NZD higher. GBP and EUR mixed ahead of economic data.
By Nick Parsons
Thursday 4 January
British Pound (GBP)
The pound got the New Year off to a very good start on Tuesday and by the London opening on Wednesday it extended its gains further to reach USD1.3608; its highest since the day after the EU referendum back in June 2016. From that point on, however, it has been downhill all the way and the pair tumbled more than a full cent yesterday, with the pound losing ground against every one of the major currencies we track here. The latest UK PMI construction numbers were certainly disappointing, and the year finished in a downbeat fashion. The headline index fell to 52.2 in December from 53.1 as a robust rise in residential building contrasted with falling work on commercial projects and stagnating civil engineering output. Survey respondents indicated that house building remained a key engine of growth, with residential work expanding for the sixteenth consecutive month in December. In contrast, latest data indicated a moderate fall in commercial construction, thereby continuing the downward trend seen since July. Civil engineering work stabilised during the latest survey period, which ended a three-month period of decline. As Markit noted in their Press Release, “construction firms indicated that longer term business confidence is still relatively subdued, largely reflecting concerns about the domestic economic outlook. 37% of the survey panel forecast a rise in construction activity over the course of 2018, while around 11% anticipate a reduction. As a result, the balance of UK construction companies expecting growth in the year ahead remains among the weakest recorded by the survey since mid-2013”. Ahead of the service sector PMI today, the GBP opens in Europe this morning at USD1.3525 with GBP/AUD at 1.7230 and GBP/NZD1.8995.
US Dollar (USD)
USD/GBP expected range: 1.3450 – 1.3610
After almost three weeks of steady but relentless selling which took its index against a basket of major currencies down from 93.80 on December 12th to a low on January 2nd of 91.44, the US Dollar finally found support in the Northern Hemisphere yesterday. It wasn’t just about the economic data (see below) as the USD turned higher before the latest US numbers were released. By the end of the London afternoon, however, the Dollar Index had moved up to a high of 91.88 and after the FOMC Minutes were published, it managed to push a little higher still. Overnight in Asia it has slipped back a little to 91.77. The solid economic news began with the December ISM manufacturing survey which rose to 59.7 from 58.2, above the consensus forecast for an unchanged 58.2. very encouragingly, the New Orders Index registered 69.4; an increase of 5.4 points from the November reading of 64.0. Comments from the panel reflected expanding business conditions, with new orders and production leading gains; employment expanding at a slower rate; order backlogs expanding at a faster rate; and export orders and imports continuing to grow in December. Away from manufacturing, November construction spending rose a stronger than expected 0.8% after a +0.9% gain in October and was the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The November rise was led by a solid advance in homebuilding and a 4.8% post-hurricane leap in spending on home improvements. Non-residential construction rebounded 0.9% in November after declining four of the last five months, led by office building, which rose 5.5%. Later in the US afternoon, the Minutes of the December FOMC Board Meeting were published. As ever, there’s something for everyone in these and you can always find a wide spread of views expressed. Some members said a faster trajectory of rate hikes may be needed whilst several officials were concerned by low inflation expectations. A couple were concerned by financial stability risks but most backed gradual rate hikes. The main takeaway, though, is that the two dissenters will not be voting members in 2018 and the market-derived probability of a March rate hike has gone up from 56% to 67%. The US Dollar index opens in Europe this morning at 91.77; up around 30 pips from its recent low.
European Euro (EUR)
GBP/EUR expected range: 1.1220 – 1.1295
After a year in which the euro was the best performing of all the major currencies, it got off to a flying start in 2018; with a high on Tuesday morning of 1.2077; the highest in over 3 years. It couldn’t sustain its very positive momentum throughout the day and finished in New York around 30 pips below its best level. On Wednesday the pullback continued, with a day’s low of just 1.2006 though overnight in Asia it has rallied back to USD1.2025. The modest pullback in the EUR comes despite a very good set of German labour market data. The seasonally adjusted jobless total dropped by 29,000 to 2.442 million; more than double the 12,000 consensus forecast. December's unemployment rate was 5.%, the same as a revised reading for November and the lowest level since German reunification in 1990, the office said. In 2017 as a whole, the rate fell to 5.7% from 6.1% the previous year. The detailed numbers showed Germanys workforce expanded last year to a record 44.3 million, whilst the Labour Office said there were 761,000 job vacancies in December, suggesting companies are struggling to find skilled workers quickly. Of course, whilst the German data are very impressive, they have rather lost their power to surprise on the upside, given that expectations are already so elevated. Ahead of Eurozone aggregate and individual countries’ PMI services reports, the EUR opens in Europe at USD1.2025 and GBP/EUR1.1245.
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